Ill-Advised Box Office Predictions

OF COURSE IT MAKES NO SENSE. My terrible track record at predicting the box office success and failure of major motion picture releases only encourages me to continue to make predictions. I have done so before on this blog, back when I predicted box office failure for 10,000 B.C. And then I showed my tenaciousness (or foolishness), by sticking to that prediction, even after it had a fairly solid opening weekend. So, I was wrong. Just as my lovely wife predicted.

But I will press on, certain that I have a talent for box office prediction. That I have special insight into the movie-going public’s tastes. That I’ve got my finger on, if not the pulse, a pulse.

It is my obstinacy on this issue that drives my wife crazy.

We will be turning this dynamic into a podcast next week. But until that time, here are my predictions for this weekend’s big releases. I’m sure my wife will disagree with them. Or at least find them ridiculous.

It is a risk I am compelled to take.

Speed Racer
In the positive column: Hirsch sort of looks like Speed, Ricci sort of looks like Trixie and Fox is on Lost. The movie also features a monkey (always a plus). But the last two Matrix movies sort of blew. Hmm, I still think Iron Man’s second week beats Speed’s first.

Opening weekend: $26.2 million
Total take: barely $90 million

What Happens In Vegas
If it was the animated version of Cameron Diaz, this movie would make $300 million. But it’s not. There’s kind of a glut of comedies out right now with Harold & Kumar, Sarah Marshall, Made of Honor and Baby Mama still in theaters. This does not bode well for a movie I basically feel like no one wants to see. Also, there’s not a single laugh in any of the trailers. Not a good sign for a comedy.

Opening weekend: $17 million
Total take: $40 million

There. Now I’ve said it. Now both of these films will probably be HUGE successes.

You’re welcome, Hollywood.