Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Box Office Yo-Yo

NOT GREAT, BUT NOT TERRIBLE. I really thought I had screwed the pooch after I saw that Pineapple Express did over $12 million in its Wednesday bow alone, but business for the film cooled off considerably, dropping my predictions down into solid C territory. Not realizing that Sisterhood was also opening on Wednesday (I am a smart guy like that), I offered no 5-day prediction. Despite that, I was still pretty close with my weekend estimate. Which helped me rebound from my horrible showing last week. Here's the math:

Pineapple Express
My prediction: $32 million ($52 million for five-day opening)
Actual opening weekend: $23.2 million ($41.3 million)
Accuracy: 72.5% (79.4%)

Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2
My prediction: $12 million
Actual opening weekend: $10.6 million
Accuracy: 88.3%

Tropic Thunder
The more they show of this movie, the funnier it looks. And if so many people are getting offended by it before it even hits the theaters, I've gotta think it's going to kill at the box office. Controversy sells tickets! All of this has, in my estimation, raised the profile of this flick from over-hyped potential blockbuster to authentic blockbuster. It really feels like people are excited about seeing this film, and the film looks like it's a better pedigree of comedy from Ben Stiller, who kinda needs some box office redemption after The Heartbreak Kid, and maybe a little comedy street cred infusion after Night at the Museum. But, hey, what the hell do I know about movies? If you ask the wife, she'll say "not much." Who am I to say she's wrong?
Opening weekend: $35 million
Five-day take: $55 million
Total take: $105 million


Star Wars: The Clone Wars
Man, is this one a puzzler! Initially I thought that this addition to the franchise would end up better than any of the last three crappy Star Wars films. I even added the caveat that "it may even suck, but even so will be a better movie than all three of those horrible films put together." But now I'm hearing some very lukewarm feedback about the flick (and a suspicious lack of buzz). Granted, Warner Bros. has a review embargo in effect until the Friday release, but even geeky Star Wars friends of mine seem borderline bored about it. That said, I think they'll all go see it. Also, since when does word that a Star Wars movie sucks keep people out of the theaters? Attack of the Clones did over $300 million, the only slightly less crappy Sith one did $380. Not that this movie's gonna approach those numbers. But still, time and time again, people prove that they're willing to hand over sacks and sacks of money to George Lucas in return for a handful of non-magical beans. It's not even like he tells us the beans are magical. We just hope they are. Because there was a time that they seemed magical. We are stupid.
Opening weekend: $33 million
Total take: $100 million


Bonus Prediction: Mirrors
It looks stupid. Isn't that enough? Um...I sure hope so.
Opening weekend: $9 million
Total take: $31 million

1 comment:

kcimprovgeek said...

So that's why...OMG. I feel so...USED.

—Geeky Star Wars friend of yours