Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Box Office Genius?

I DON'T WANT TO GET AHEAD OF MYSELF, but so far in this Summer Blockbuster Season, I have been pretty accurate with my predictions. First with Speed Racer and What Happens In Vegas (see predictions here) and then with Prince Caspian (here). Let's review last week's numbers.

Prince Caspian
My prediction: $58 million (total take: $172 million)
Actual opening weekend: $55 million
Box office so far: $59 million

This week it's all about one film.

Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
My wife thinks the movie will not be very good, whereas I believe it will be the second best of the series (between the original and the one with Sean Connery). We both agree, however, that the quality of the film will have little impact on the box office numbers. I don't really see any reason why the film would miss its predicted target for the opening 5-day weekend (between $150-$165 million), nor its predicted target for its total take ($360 million). Caspian is a dud at the box office, Iron Man is on the wane (ever so slowly) and nothing else of note (sorry War, Inc.) is dropping on this weekend. I do think the biggest arguable point will be on the actual quality of the film and where it resides in the the trilogy +1.
Opening 5-day weekend: $159 million
Total box office take: $339 million

Prove me wrong, America!

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