Friday, August 1, 2008

Box Office Washout

I TOOK IT IN THE SHORTS LAST WEEK. There's no two ways about it. I predicted moderate disappointment for both X-Files and Step Brothers. When, in fact, it was gigantic disappointment and a strong showing, respectively -- leaving me at 45% and 77% accuracy. Frankly, that's just embarrassing. Here's the numbers.

The X-Files: I Want to Believe
My prediction: $22 million
Actual opening weekend: $10 million
Accuracy: 45%

Step Brothers
My prediction: $24 million
Actual opening weekend: $30.9 million
Accuracy: 77%

The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor
In a shocking development, the wife and I have a huge disagreement on this film. She says it's gonna do between $70 and $80 million. I say, no way. Right now, the film has a 10% rating on, making it one of the worst-reviewed films of the year. Also, Brendan Fraser's box office appeal may be on the wane, considering the box office take of his other summer release, Journey to the Center of the Earth (just over $60 million in three weeks). Considering the fact that Journey is still in the theaters, I'm not so sure America wants that much more of Brendan in their lives right now. Also, The Mummy franchise feels a little bit like yesterday's news -- or more specifically, news from seven years ago. Ultimately, and even though The Dark Knight is in its third weekend, I think The Mummy will have a tough time besting Batman for the top spot. It'll be a close one, I think, with the #1 and #2 spots separated by not much more than $3.5 million.
Opening weekend: $42 million
Total take: $101 million

Swing Vote
Um...what? Really? So, lemme get this straight. The presidential election comes down to one vote. And that deciding vote belongs to Kevin Costner, who is a drunk boob with a precocious kid. So the two candidates try to woo his vote, and in the end democracy wins? While it sounds adorable and pithy and cute and enchanting and like it will make me want to "stand up and cheer" (something I've never done nor witnessed at a theater, yet something critics claim is a regular and normal reaction to seeing a movie), I can't help but take a look at Costner's track record. I know we all consider him to be a MOVIE STAR. But since 1992's The Bodyguard, Costner hasn't broken the $100 million mark even once. The closest he came was $88.2 million with 1995's Waterworld, which isn't exactly considered a box office success. After that, nothing, not one movie, that grossed over $60 million. Also, since 2000, Costner has released eight movies and averaged $35.5 million per movie. Not on opening box office. If we're talking opening weekends, those same eight movies have averaged $7.86 million. So, I'll give Costner the benefit of the doubt and give him a little more than his current average.
Opening weekend: $8 million
Total take: $35.7 million

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